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Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil prices, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies. It also describes a poor European potato harvest and warns that the effects on food supplies may extend into 2027. The report’s figures are dated through September 26, and some later developments are not covered.
Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report links the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to higher oil prices, fuel disruption and risks to food production, with potential consequences for Europe’s winter energy supplies. The account, written from a Polish perspective, says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran closed it in March.
Wojcik says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, followed by Iran’s closure of the strait. The International Energy Agency described the resulting oil disruption as the largest the market had ever seen, according to the report. Brent crude rose to about $108 a barrel on September 24, after a fragile ceasefire had briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer.
The report also describes uneven effects on fuel markets. In France, official data showed that 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik says about nine in ten of the affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew drivers as other prices climbed.
Food production faces a slower shock. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, the report says, citing the route’s role in moving agricultural inputs. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Separately, European potato growers planted less after a previous year’s glut, then faced heatwaves and drought; their organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent.
From Oil Routes to Food Supplies
The report matters because it shows how disruption to one shipping route can affect several parts of daily life at different speeds. Oil prices and tanker costs respond quickly to a closure, while shortages of fertiliser can take months to appear in harvests and food prices. That delay may make the effects less visible at first even as farmers face constrained supplies.
For European households, the concerns include transport fuel, food costs and winter heating. Wojcik writes that Poland relies on coal and imported gas and is increasing military spending with borrowed money. Those details explain his focus on how overseas conflict may intersect with domestic vulnerabilities; they do not establish the scale of any coming Polish heating shortfall.
The Route Behind the Disruption
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a major passage for energy and fertiliser shipments. Wojcik says its closure began in March, after US and Israeli operations against Iran started in late February. Tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent, pushing shipments onto costlier or less direct routes.
The report describes a proposed diplomatic opening that did not take hold. On September 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected the proposal, according to Wojcik. The report also notes that Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during September, affecting the alternative route through the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab strait.
Other pressures were already affecting markets. The report says Ukrainian drones had struck Russian refineries at least 70 times that year, while Russia’s refining output reached a two-decade low and Moscow restricted fuel exports. These developments add pressure to fuel supply, though the report does not quantify how much of the price movement each factor caused.
“The government rules out a shortage.”
— French government, as reported by Tom Wojcik
How Long the Shortfalls Last
The report provides figures through September 26, 2026, but does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen or whether negotiations will resume. It also does not give a firm estimate for how much oil supply will return if shipping resumes, or how quickly tanker rates would fall.
The effect on food availability remains a forecast. The FAO warning cited by Wojcik extends into 2027, but the report does not quantify resulting price changes across specific countries. The expected potato harvest decline comes from a growers’ organisation, and the article excerpt does not provide its methodology or final harvest totals. The scale of any winter heating shortage in Poland or Germany is also not established.
Diplomacy and the Coming Harvests
The next developments to watch are whether Iran and Washington return to negotiations, whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes, and how oil prices respond. A reopening would affect shipping costs and energy markets, though the timing and size of any change remain uncertain.
For food supplies, the coming harvest results will show how much the fertiliser disruption and European drought have affected yields. Governments and food agencies will also be watching the cost and availability of assistance as oil prices remain high. Wojcik’s report offers a snapshot of interconnected risks; it does not provide a forecast that resolves those questions.
Key Questions
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz?
According to Tom Wojcik’s report, Iran closed the strait in March 2026 after US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February. Tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent.
Is France running out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage. Official figures cited in the report said 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, with many of the affected stations belonging to TotalEnergies.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The FAO warned that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
When might the disruption end?
The report does not give a reopening date. Washington rejected an Iranian proposal for a ceasefire and phased reopening on September 22, according to Wojcik.
Source: hn
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